A crystal ball would be a very appropriate forecasting tool for Alberta’s future going into 2016, for we are facing virgin territory. Looking at current events individually, there are many we have seen before and many we have not. 

Oil prices follow cycles and world events, and we have been at the low end before. Much lower than we are at today. We have seen and survived royalty reviews. We have had a Liberal majority at the helm of the Federal government. In fact, we have even seen a Prime Minister Trudeau before. However, an NDP Provincial government? Okay, that is something we have not seen.

Taking all these things together, however, creates a pattern that is historically unique and somewhat alarming to Alberta’s future.

I do not see oil prices changing substantially in 2016. Along with that, there will be further reductions and cuts in the energy sector, and a subsequent ripple effect throughout the Alberta economy.

I see both the NDP and Liberal governments continuing to fast track energy policies and climate control measures, which will be detrimental to Alberta. Any real movement on the new pipelines will be seen only after a new president takes power in the US in 2017.

So far, the NDP has been overly eager in its zeal to effect change and have taken a ready-shoot-aim approach to getting things done. Bill 6 (the farm safety bill) is a good example of something that sounded good and has been executed poorly. I am sure Notley and her team will learn this, but I expect more of the same in 2016 before they do.

I see both the NDP and Liberal governments continuing to fast track energy policies and climate control measures, which will be detrimental to Alberta.

Justin Trudeau really has little choice but to appease Eastern Canada at the expense of Alberta. Although a strong oil industry is good for the overall economic health of Canada, Justin will be too focused on international opinion to make the sacrifices needed. The fact we sent over 380 people to Paris is only a hint of things to come.

My suggestion is Alberta companies need to prepare for a long winter. They need to take a hard look at their business plans, mission statements, and long term goals. Starting right NOW. A wait and see philosophy will be fatal.

Strategies of the past will need to be radically modified to prepare for a changing financial and political landscape. The ability to react and adapt quickly to changing circumstances will be the trait that determines who will survive and who will fail.

My view is not doom and gloom. As a business consultant whose expertise is change management, I see every opportunity for new growth to happen provided strategic plans are created and available. Change can be good, but we will need to be crystal clear about what that change is and how best to ride it.

There has been a huge amount of valuable work done in the area of change management in the past decade, which is readily available to companies of all sizes. However, up to now, many companies have only paid lip service to it. Now is the time to actually implement these tools and be one of the survivors.