Good Trump vs. Bad Trump

Date PublishedDecember 23, 2016
CompanyOilfield HUB
Article AuthorKevin Turko
Article TypeDecember 2016 Issue
CategoryArticles, CEO Message
Tags, , ,
PULSE Interactive

Good Trump vs. Bad Trump

Good Trump Vs. Bad Trump

If you want to get into an instantaneous and often heated debate these days, all you have to mention is President-elect Donald J. Trump. Never has an incoming President been such a divisive and polarizing figure on both sides of the border. At least to some, that is if you define some as 50% of the population, he’s the anti-Christ. While to the rest, they universally feel Mr. Trump couldn’t have shown up on the political landscape soon enough.

No matter what you think about the man himself, no one can deny that his presidency is going to have a profound impact on economic, social, and environmental issues. Will the impact be positive or negative? Depending on your personal beliefs, political leanings and business acumen, this is where both sides agree to disagree once again! Neither side of the debate, left vs. right, Liberals vs. Conservatives in Canada, Democrats vs. Republicans in the USA, are prepared to give an inch to the other side. Throw in a whole heap of NDP ideology solely for us way-ward oil and gas souls in Alberta, and a perfect storm is a brewing!

Like it or not, love him or hate him, Trump won the election and now will be the leader of the free world for the next four to eight years. As our closest friend and ally, largest trading partner, and from an energy standpoint, our biggest competitor, what impact will a Trump presidency have on Canada? We’ve been inundated with

countless opinions from those that have political skin in the game. The mainstream media, that seem to have lost their minds, along with both their objectivity and journalism diplomas, are having a field day at Trump’s expense. As Mark Twain famously said “If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper you are misinformed”. From WikiLeaks to fake news debates, who do you believe? Well of course, your good friends at Oilfield PULSE.

So we asked our regular contributors to weigh in. No political pundits, no critics or commentators. Just regular folks from our Oilfield HUB supply network that have a vested interest in the future prosperity of our great country. We welcome you to our December issue of Oilfield PULSE, focused on the one and only Donald J. Trump and our theme this month ……. ‘Make Canada Great Again, or Will It?’

Last month’s U.S. election results sure were a massive twist of events.
President-elect Trump pulled off a win that 63 million thought was impossible,
while 61.6 million saw it as an unprecedented and hopeful outcome. Regardless of your feelings towards Trump as a man, his political platform and ideologies, we thought we would step into these treacherous waters to share our collective views on what his historic win will mean for Canada.

● For starters, how will Trump’s presidency help or hurt the oil and gas industry in Canada?

● How will Canadian businesses stay competitive, when we are straddled with new and escalating carbon taxes when U.S. businesses are not?

● How will Trump impact Canada/U.S. relations considering the partisan politics of our federal and provincial governments?

● Trump says he plans to ‘buy American first’ – will he stick to this promise and how will this impact commodity prices, pipeline approvals, and exports to the United States?

Carbon Corner: The Carbon Pollution Shell Game

● Trump is a self-proclaimed climate skeptic. If Trump pushes forward with his coal agenda, while Canada is pulling back how will this impact natural gas production and electricity rates in Canada?

● Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA – will that help or hinder free trade with Canada?

● If Trump cuts corporate and personal taxes in the U.S., how does it affect our citizens and businesses north of the border?

● Trump has said he wants to reduce regulations for U.S. oil and gas companies to create more jobs and bolster growth. How do we continue to compete when so many Canadian producers feel we are too over-regulated and over-taxed?

Electronic Bids And Orders

In the weeks following the U.S. election, and in the face of Trump’s victory, it appears our federal government is doubling down here in Canada with the introduction of the Pan-Canadian framework. Sure does sound important and ever so inclusionary, but scraped down to the nubs, this just means more new and escalating taxes across the board. Certainly a stark difference from what we’re hearing from Mr. Trump.

It really depends on whether Good Trump vs. Bad Trump shows up for work at the White House in January. Throughout his campaign, and now repeatedly on his victory tour, he is doubling down in the opposite direction. In his words, huge new spending on infrastructure, huge corporate and personal tax cuts, huge reductions in business killing regulations, huge curtailment of illegal immigration and a huge overhaul of bad trade deals and trade barriers.

During his campaign, he promised to ban OPEC oil from U.S. markets. This could happen in the first 100 days of his presidency. Trumps commitment to “An America First Energy Plan” will be great for Canada and our oil and gas sector. We currently provide 45% of their daily needs and this will continue to increase as their economy

Notley Trudeau Wall. The 3 Legged Carbon Tax Stool

heats up. Mexico will benefit as well. The oil patch in both Canada and the U.S. will go back to work sooner than we envisioned before the election.

The U.S. currently consumes 20,000,000 bbls/ day and is only producing 8,500,000 bbls/day. They import 3,500,000 bbls/day from OPEC. Canada, as I said provides 45% of their total consumption needs! I believe that the Keystone XL pipeline will now get done, although TCPL may need to renegotiate the agreement, as well as the two pipelines to the Midwest and GOM. Also, we will see increased railway traffic so more upside for CP/CN going forward.

All good news if this happens for our businesses! In Canada, our stock market is positioned well to take advantage of the anticipated economic growth in the U.S. In order for our business to stay competitive, this likely will mean a low Canadian dollar for an extended period of time, into the 3 to 5 year range. Trade will undoubtedly increase, not just because of increased oil exports, but more so because there will be an increased demand for intermediary goods to fuel increased production of finished products in the U.S.

So will we see Good Trump vs. Bad Trump? With what little money we have left to bet on in Alberta these days, I’m leaning toward Good Trump! It may cause the left to lose their minds for the next four years, and put an end or temporary hiatus of the politically correct. I would gladly sacrifice both of those in favour of economic prosperity to get people back to work in Canada. Now, if only our Canadian political leaders would get off their ideological pedestals and follow President-elect Trump’s lead, you’ve got to give before you can receive!

Kevin Turko
Oilfield HUB Inc.







Originally  published in the 

December 2016 Issue of Oilfield PULSE